【摘要】 对我国近15年来事故管理领域的研究进行了评述。信息统计和个案研究是事故管理的基础,案例库建设对未来事故的评估预防有借鉴作用。行业安全体系建设在国内越来越受到重视。重大安全事故的预测、评估、处理的理论发展和应用实践水平迅速提高。事故的定量安全评估、事故预防、更加实用的应急救援和疏散方法等是研究的热点。更多还原

【Abstract】 The present paper intends to make a detailed review on unexpected accident management in China in recent years.As is known,China,a country pursuing its peaceful rising,is now staying at a stage of vigorous social transition and in turn comes along with lots of unexpected accidents in production,transportation,and all other fields,which makes it imperative to improve the accident management in the country.Funded by the National Science and Technology Infrastructure Project,this paper would like to offer a comprehensive review over the accidents that took place with a detailed analysis based on s general survey and statistics in this way in the past 15 years.In doing so,first of all,we have noticed that the governments and departments concerned have been paying more and more close attention to the improvement of the industrial production safety systems and facilities all over the country.Statistical analysis of the information and data of the conspicuous safety and security accidents by a few production safety accident research institutions can serve as an available database for our study of the geographical distributions and pursue of the fuzzy inference regularities of such accidents.The samples we quote here for the successful handling of such accidents in the past decades should have played an important role in the decision-making process of a new emergent accident.And some of them have been developed into backbone units in the field of environmental protection.For detailed study of such safety accidents,the safety and security methods aiming to combat such accidents may include:(1) The research and improvement of the regression prediction method,the time prediction method,Markov chain prediction method,the gray prediction method,the Bayesian network prediction method and the neural network prediction method and the ways of how to bring the above methods into prediction practice;(2) Ways to enhance the major hazards management and quantitative risk assessment of prevention and combating against such disastrous accidents;(3) The ways on how to do the Fault Tree Analysis,the Analytic Hierarchy Process and other methods in actual disastrous accidents analysis;(4) the theories,models and methods for emergency response,evacuation and rescue approaches,supplies distribution and the accidents aftermath treatment.It can be thus concluded that the research focuses in the future in the accident management field are still likely to be put on the quantified risk assessment,accident prevention,more practical emergency rescue measures and evacuation strategies.更多还原