【摘要】 目的预测浙江省乙型肝炎发病趋势,为卫生工作的决策和防病治病提供科学的依据。方法根据浙江省2004—2009年乙型肝炎发病率,建立GM(1,1)模型,进行预测研究。结果预测结果显示,浙江省2010—2011年乙型肝炎发病率分布为60.78/10万和56.84/10万。浙江省2010—2011年乙型肝炎的发病率呈下降趋势,提示乙肝防控工作成效明显,应继续落实各项防控措施。结论预测模型精度检验Δ=0.027,C=0.27,P=1,外推预测较精确。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To understand and predict the incidence trend of hepatitis B in Zhejiang province.MethodsThe grey dynamic model was established with the incidence rates of hepatitis B in Zhejiang province from 2004 to 2009.The Average relative error,standard deviation ratio and small error probability were calculated respectively to measure the fitting accuracy of the model.ResultsAccording to the model,the predicted incidence rate of hepatitis B would be 60.76 and 56.83 per 100000 person-years respectively for the year of 2010 and 2011.The model showed a downward trend of hepatitis B incidence in Zhejiang province and suggested the great success has been achieved in the hepatitis B prevention and control.The current comprehensive measures should be continued for the prevention and control of hepatitis B.ConclusionThe Relative Average Error,Standard Deviation Ratio and Small Error Probability of the model were 0.027,0.27 and 1 respectively,which showed that the model could fit the data well and could be used to predict the future trend.更多还原