【摘要】 以华北农牧交错带为切入点,选取晋北长城沿线大同市8个气象站点,利用线性趋势分析、5年滑动、M-K检验以及Thornthwaite模型,分析了近38年来大同市气候变化及其气候生产力的演变特征。结果表明:①近38年大同市气温呈现显著增加趋势,且在1994年发生突变。②降水量呈现不显著的减少趋势。③气候生产力呈现缓慢增加趋势,出现南部高于北部,东西方向上呈现由中心向四周递增。④暖湿气候的气候生产力呈现正距平,最适合作物生长;冷干气候的气候生产力呈现负距平,最不适合作物生长。现阶段气候暖干化趋势显著,因此研究气候变化对气候生产力有重要意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper selected the pastoral transition zone of north as the point,choosing 8 meteorological stations along the Great Wall in Datong of the north of Shanxi,analyzed the mutation of climate and climate productivity in the recent 38 years of Datong,with linear trend analysis,5-year running average,M-K test and the Thornthwaite model.The results showed that the temperature increased significantly,and the mutation year was 1994,but the precipitation decreased significantly,the trend of climate productivity increased slowly,and the south was higher than the north,but in the latitudinal direction,it increased from the center to the both sides.If the climate was warm and humid,the climate productivity was in positive anomalies.However,if the climate was cold and dry,the climate productivity was in negative anomalies.So the most suitable environment for crop growth was the climate of warm and humid.At this stage,the climate became warmer and drier so it was important to research the climate change.更多还原