【摘要】 以气象站点的观测数据和PRECIS模型发展的B2情景数据为驱动,运用分布式VIC水文模型进行气候变化对水资源影响的情景模拟。通过2001—2030年对照期与1981—2000年基准期水资源量对比表明:水稻主产区整体水资源量呈上升趋势,水资源的空间分布由东南向西北呈下降趋势;在气候变化的影响下,水稻主产区的28个二级流域的水资源变化量幅度在-48.5～269.1 mm之间,相对变化率在-6.1%～29.6%之间。沿海的钱塘江流域、瓯江流域、闽江流域、韩江流域、闽东、粤东及台湾沿海诸河流域、东江流域水资源量增多明显;粤桂琼沿海诸河流域、元江—红河流域、黄河上游干流区间、嘉陵江流域和淮河干流水资源量减少,但减少的绝对量不大。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on both observed climate data and B2 climate scenario’s data from PRECIS,the impact of climate change on water resources was simulated by using the VIC model.Comparison of runoff-depth between the average of 2001-2030(B2,near term) and the average of 1981-2000(B2,baseline period) shows that water resources would increase generally in the main paddy rice cropping regions,with a distribution trend of higher in south-east and lower in north-west.Calculated based on 28 second class watersheds in China’s main paddy rice cropping regions,water resources increased from-48.5 mm to 269.1 mm,as such relative variation from-6.1% to 29.6%.Water resources would increase in the coastal areas of Qiantangjiang,Wajiang,Minjiang,Hanjiang,Mindong,Yuedong,Dongjiang and the watersheds of Taiwan’s,and would decrease in coastal areas of west Guangdong,Guangxi and Hainan watersheds as well as in watersheds of Yuanjiang-Red River,mainstream of the upper reaches of Huanghe River,Jialingjiang,mainstream of Huaihe River.But the absolute decrease would not be much.更多还原