【摘要】 耕地数量的减少和耕地质量的退化成为目前为保护18亿亩(1.2×108hm2)耕地红线所必须关注的焦点领域,为此,如何在保证耕地质量不退化的前提下,实现区域耕地总量的动态平衡,不仅是一项紧迫的政府工作,也是严肃的科学问题。论文基于现有研究成果,借助定额指标预测、相关分析和双因子调控模型等方法,结合ArcG IS的空间分析功能,从耕地现有质量和建设用地需求预测两方面体现占用耕地的保有格局,从土地开发整理潜力和占补耕地数量质量折算分析补充耕地的主要来源,进而建立重庆市耕地占补平衡体系。结果表明:到2020年重庆因建设占用将减少耕地58 856.56 hm2,土地开发整理现实新增耕地潜力达89 961.06 hm2,考虑到新增耕地的质量折算因素,新增耕地的现实潜力可达84 239.54 hm2,即是说,按照现有经济发展对建设用地的需求预测,重庆完全有能力实现耕地的占补平衡。耕地占补平衡体系的建立按照建设占用耕地与补充耕地在数量和质量上相当的要求,采用按等折算方式将其真正落到实处,对掌握重庆市实现占补平衡的最大理论潜力,具有较强的实用性和可操作性。更多还原

【Abstract】 The tendency of quantity reduction and quality degradation of cultivated land is inevitable along with population explosion and economic development in China.Maintenance of dynamic equilibrium of the total cultivated land on the premise of protection quality of cultivated land was not only an urgent governmental action,but also was a serious scientific issue.Moreover,"protecting 1.8 billion mu of cultivated land red line" is to neither reduce the quantity of cultivated land nor debase the quality of cultivated land.Using ration indicator prediction,correlation analysis and double factor model,this paper firstly discussed quantity and quality of cultivated land in Chongqing,and predicted the need variability of built-up land in 2020 to reflect the current situation of cultivated land utilization;secondly it did researches in the potentiality of land consolidation and rehabilitation,and analyzed quantity-quality conversion of supplementary cultivated land;and finally it established the system of balance between land consolidation and rehabilitation and land occupation of construction projects in Chongqing.The results showed that,until 2020,the total quantity of cultivated land which was occupied by built-up land would reduce 58856.56 hm2,and the practical potential of land consolidation and rehabilitation could reach 89961.06 hm2.According to quantity-quality converted coefficient of supplementary cultivated land,the practical potential still reached 84239.54 hm2.On the whole,Chongqing was able to realize dynamic equilibrium of the total cultivated land.The system of balance between land consolidation and rehabilitation and land occupation of construction projects was established based on the quantity and quality of supplementary cultivated lands which were equal to occupied cultivated lands,and meanwhile it was put into practice through grading conversion to understand the maximum potential.It could provide scientific basis for instituting of the land management policy in Chongqing.更多还原