【摘要】 采取演绎思路,在历史灾情的基础上,根据脆弱性概念,运用包络分析的CCR投入-产出模型,对上海各郊区(县)的农业水灾脆弱性分异规律进行了分析。结果表明:松江与南汇脆弱性达1的年数最多,宝山、金山与青浦处于中等,嘉定、浦东、奉贤与崇明脆弱性达1的年数最少;另外1,991年为水灾形势最为严峻的年份,其次是1985年,1987-1990年间,各区(县)的脆弱性值都偏小,没有脆弱性达1的区域。这与实际情况基本符合,该方法可以为市政部门提供必要信息和决策参考,以提高灾害科学管理的水平。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on historical disaster situation and concept of vulnerability,the flood vulnerability variation of agriculture in suburban districts and counties of Shanghai Municipality by the input and output model of CCR for envelop analysis.Results show the flood vulnerability in Songjiang and Nanhui is the highest,and that in Baoshan,Qingpu and Jinshan is middle.The vulnerability in Chongming,Pudong,Jiading and Fengxian is low.In time scale,the overall vulnerability in Shanghai shows that the vulnerability in 1991 is the highest,followed by that in 1985.From 1987 to 1990,the vulnerability in all regions is low.The results are in accord with the fact.The presented method of vulnerability assessment is applicable,which can provide not only necessary information but also reference to Shanghai Municipal Government in improvement of flood management.更多还原