【摘要】 内涝是影响上海的主要灾害之一,上海城区居民住宅特别是旧式住宅容易因之受损乃至倒塌。基于情景模拟和指标体系方法,开展了上海中心城区住宅的风险评估。利用上海水务信息中心开发的内涝仿真模型,设置暴雨情景并对该情景下的内涝进行模拟,得到了区域水深分布状况,利用G IS技术求得每座住宅的水深,体现其在内涝中的暴露程度,并构造暴露性评价模型,综合反映区域总体暴露状况。根据旧式住宅较易受到影响的事实,构造脆弱性指数,最终衡量区域住宅面临灾害的整体风险状况,实现区域间居民住宅内涝风险的对比分析。设置了五十年一遇的暴雨内涝情景,针对中心城区各街道开展了实证研究,最终评价结果显示出的危险性、暴露性、脆弱性和风险分布规律,与实际情况基本符合。该方法可以为市政部门提供必要的信息,提高内涝灾害的管理水平。更多还原

【Abstract】 The waterlogging is one of the most serious hazards in Shanghai Municipality.Residences,especially the old-style residences in downtown of Shanghai are prone to be affected and even collapse during waterlogging disasters.The purpose of this paper is to carry out risk assessment of residences in the region based on scenario simulation and indicator system.The rainstorm scenario was simulated by the rainstorm simulation model developed by Shanghai Flood Risk Information Center.The inundation depth of each residence obtained by GIS is a degree of exposure of it.Then an exposure assessment model was built to integrate different ranks of exposure.According to the fact that old-style residences are main hazard-bearing bodies during waterlogging hazards,we established a vulnerability indicator.Finally the total risk feature of a region and the comparison of disaster situation among different districts are realized.Finally,using the storm scenario of 50-year return period,taking the streets as the assessment units,we made an assessment on the risk of residences in Shanghai downtown.It is obvious from the research result that the spatial distribution of hazard,exposure,vulnerability and risk are in accord with the fact.The method of risk assessment is applicable,which can provide necessary information for Shanghai Municipal Government to improve waterlogging management.更多还原