【摘要】 为了解灌溉区气候变化对农业生产的影响规律,笔者通过对西部绿洲地区(甘肃河西、新疆南疆地区及宁夏)气象资料与年气候生产力的分析,发现年气候生产力年际变化规律为:甘肃河西、新疆南疆地区呈逐年增加趋势,增速为0.97～38.12kg/(hm2·a),宁夏地区呈逐年减少趋势,减速为4.65～17.86kg/(hm·2a),且与降水量的变化趋势非常一致。空间变化规律表现为:在经度小于90°的地区,随着纬度及经度的增大,年气候生产力增加;在经度大于90°的地区,随着纬度减小及经度的增大,年气候生产力增加。针对未来可能出现的49种情况,预测年气候生产力的变化趋势,以湿型气候年型最为有利,呈增长趋势,增幅为3.4～28.5kg/(hm2·a);干型气候年型不利,呈递减趋势,减幅为6.6～29.9kg/(hm2·a)。更多还原

【Abstract】 To understand the climate change rules of irrigation area on agricultural production,the author analyzed the climate productivity change in oasis in the western region using the meteorological data in Gansu Hexi,South Xinjiang and Ningxia.The results showed that the change rule of climate productivity as:climate productivity was increasing year by year in Gansu Hexi and South Xinjiang region,the growth rate of 0.97~ 38.12 kg/(hm2·a),showed a decreasing trend in Ningxia region,deceleration was 4.65~17.86 kg/(hm2·a),and with the precipitation trend was very consistent.The climate productivity year by year was increasing in the areas of less than 90° longitude,with the increase of latitude and longitude;the climate productivity year by year was increasing in the areas of greater than 90° longitude,with latitude reducing and longitude increasing.For the 49 possible future situations,changing trends of climate productivity was as followed:the climate productivity with wet type of climate was most favorable growing trend,an increase of 3.4~28.5 kg/(hm2·a);climate productivity was a decreasing trend and decreased 6.6~29.9 kg/(hm2·a)with dry type of climate.更多还原