【摘要】 针对北京市密云县境内密云水库上游山洪泥石流发生特点,以系统科学为基本思想,将Bayes判别分析法引入山区小流域山洪泥石流预报模型建立之中。通过对北京市密云县境内密云水库上游影响山洪泥石流发生的系统内部要素和其外部环境条件进行综合分析,选择影响山洪泥石流发生的前15d实效降雨量和当日降雨量作为预报模型因子,分别建立了三种不同流域面积范围的山洪泥石流预报模型,所建立的山洪泥石流预报模型适用的流域面积范围分别为0.30～2.00 km2、2.00～5.00 km2和5.00～15.42 km2。经检验,三组预报模型的正确率分别为86.4%、92.9%和83.3%,均满足了Bayes判别分析法所规定的其验证正确率的要求,表明模型可以应用于研究区域不同流域面积范围的山洪泥石流预报。预报模型的建立为北京市密云县境内密云水库上游山洪泥石流的即时预报提供了一种简捷易行方法。更多还原

【Abstract】 Aiming at the occurring characteristics of flood and debris flow in the upper stream of Miyun Reservoir,which is located in Miyun county,Beijing city,the Bayes discriminant analysis method is introduced into the setup of forecasting model for flood and debris flow in small watershed in mountainous area based on the systematic science theory.Through the synthetic analysis of inner factors and exterior factors that affecting the occurrence of flood and debris flow in the upper stream of Miyun Reservoir,the flood and debris flow forecasting model for three different drainage area are worked out by selecting the available precipitation of 15 antecede days and the intraday precipitation as forecasting model parameters.The model is suitable for three kinds of watershed with drainage area from 0.30 to 2.00,from 2.00 to 5.00,and from 5.00 to 15.42 respectively.Verification and test show that the accuracy of three kinds of watershed are 86.4%,92.9%,and 83.3% respectively,all of that exceed 80% which is required by Bayes Discriminant Analysis Theory.It shows that the forecasting model can be used for the flood and debris flow forecast in watershed with different drainage area in the studied area.The set up of forecasting model provides a convenient and feasible method for the instantaneous forecast of flood and debris flow in the upper stream of Miyun Reservoir,which is located in Miyun county,Beijing city.更多还原