【摘要】 利用澜沧江-湄公河流域7个代表气象站1980—2009年的温度和降水观测资料,采用线性倾向估计、滑动平均和Mann-Kendall检验方法对流域年、季温度和降水变化趋势进行分析。结果表明:流域年平均温度呈明显上升趋势,线性倾向率为0.02℃/a;流域北部高海拔地区温度增加趋势比南部明显,而温度季节增加趋势不明显。流域年平均降水呈增加趋势,线性倾向率为10.49mm/a,不同地区降水增减趋势不同;雨季降水增加趋势明显,而旱季降水增加趋势不明显。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the observed daily temperature and precipitation of 7 representative meteorological stations from 1980 to 2009,annual and seasonal variation trends of temperature and precipitation in the Lancang-Mekong River basin were analyzed by using statistical methods of linear trend,moving average and Mann-Kendall test.The results show that annual mean temperature variation presents a fluctuating upward trend at a trend ratio of 0.01℃/a.Temperature increased more significantly in northern region of high allvation than in southern region of plain,while the increase in seasonal temperature is not obvious.The annual mean precipitation took on an increasing trend at a trend rates of 10.49mm/a.The increase in precipitation is remarkable in wet season,while it is not obvious in dry season.更多还原