【摘要】 基于有关水文、气象台站的降水、气温和径流观测资料,对天山南、北坡的代表性河流——开都河与乌鲁木齐河上游山区径流变化及其对气候变化的响应进行了分析。在此基础上建立山区径流对气候变化的响应模型,假定不同的气候情景组合,就两条河流出山径流对气候变化的敏感性进行分析对比。结果表明,近40余年,两条河流山区年降水量、平均气温及径流总体上均呈波动状上升态势。一方面径流与降水、气温的变化呈明显的正相关关系;另一方面山区径流对降水、气温变化的响应的程度存在着明显的区域性差异,即乌鲁木齐河出山径流对降水变化的响应程度明显强于开都河,而开都河出山径流对气温变化的敏感性要高于乌鲁木齐河。更多还原

【Abstract】 Change of runoff and climate in mountain watersheds of Kaidu river and Urumqi River originated respectively from the south slope and the north slope of the Tianshan Mountains was analyzed based on the past 50a observational data at relevant hydrological and weather stations,and the various climate scenes were assumed and the response models of mountain runoff to climate change were established to analyze sensitivity of runoff to climate change.The results are as follows.Variations of temperature,precipitation and runoff in the study area have been presenting an oscillating and rising trend as a whole since 1960s,and the rising range is quite obvious after 1990s.There is a markedly positive correlation between Mountain runoff and temperature,precipitation on the one hand,and there are also some regional differences in response degree of mountain runoff to precipitation and temperature on the other hand.The mountain runoff of Urumqi river basin is more sensitive to precipitation change than that of Kaidu river basin and the mountain runoff of Kaidu river basin is more sensitive to temperature change than that of Urumqi river basin.更多还原