【摘要】 从人口结构角度探讨碳排放问题,有利于正确判断和把握影响碳排放量的人口因素,有的放矢地制定碳减排政策,应对我国经济发展方式的转变有着重要的理论和现实意义。本文利用我国1995-2007年碳排放量、人口总数、人口的城市化率、老龄化率和反映人口消费结构的恩格尔系数第二产业从业人口比重等时间序列数据,运用协整理论、格兰杰因果检验和多元回归模型作为分析工具,对我国人口结构与碳排放量之间的关系做了实证分析。结果发现:①1995-2007年间,人口结构中的人口城市化率、人口的消费结构、第二产业从业人口比重对碳排放量均存在正向影响,而人口规模对碳排放量的影响在模型中却表现为负效应;②相对于人口规模,人口的结构特征对碳排放量的影响越来越大,其中人口的城市化率对碳排放量的正向影响最大,说明中国的碳排放量与城市化的进程存在着密切关系;③人口的老龄化对二氧化碳排放量具有负效应,人口老龄化的加快对长期碳排放有抑制作用,所以在未来实现碳减排会逐渐成为可能。最后,针对分析结果,探讨了未来我国的碳减排策略,以期能有效地控制人口因素对我国碳排放增长的影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 The exploration of carbon emissions from the perspective of population structure has both theoretical and practical significance for making emission reduction policies,and coping with the transformation of the economic growth pattern,and is also helpful to make correct judgment and grasp the demographic factor of carbon emissions.Based on the time-series data of carbon emissions,the population,Engel’s coefficient,the population urbanization and aging rate the second industry working population proportion during the period of 1995 to 2007,using co-integration theory,Granger causality test,multiple regression model,this paper made an empirical analyses of the relation between carbon emissions and population structure in China.The conclusions are:①the population,urbanization rate,consumption structure,and the second industry working population proportion have positive effect on carbon emissions during the period of 1995 to 2007.But the population has a negatiue eflect.②the structural characteristics of population have more influence on carbon emissions than population itself,and urbanization rate has the biggest positive influence on carbon emissions,so China’s carbon emissions closely relates to the process of urbanization.③population aging has negative effect on carbon emissions in the long run,The accelerated aging of the population has inhibition to long-term carbon emissions,so carbon abatement will gradually become possible in the future.Based on The results,the strategies of carbon abatement in our country are discussed and we hope these can eflectively control population factors on the influence of carbon emissions growth in China.更多还原