【摘要】 在冬小麦主产区内选取113个气象站点的1961-2008年逐日气象资料,应用Mann-Kendall突变检测和气候线性倾向率方法,分析冬小麦生育期内农业气候资源变化趋势和特征。结果表明:研究区域近50a冬小麦生育期内≥0℃积温呈明显的增加趋势(P<0.01),90年代初期以来,≥0℃积温增加趋势更加显著(P<0.05);冬小麦生育期内的降水量变化趋势不显著,也不存在突变现象,但降水量年际间变化较大;冬小麦生育期内参考作物蒸散量的变化趋势不显著,80年代出现弱的减少趋势(P<0.1),90年代以后有弱的增加趋势(P<0.1);冬小麦生育期内的初霜冻日期呈推迟趋势(P<0.01),终霜冻日期呈提前趋势(P<0.01),导致霜冻日长度呈减少趋势。21世纪初初霜冻日的推迟趋势、终霜冻日的提前趋势更加显著(P<0.05)。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the daily meteorological data of 113 weather stations in the main planted areas of winter wheat from 1961 to 2008,the characteristic of agricultural climate resources during the growing period of winter wheat was analyzed by using Mann-Kendall rank analysis and linear trend estimate method.The results indicated that the accumulated temperature higher than 0℃ during the growing period of winter wheat significantly increased,and it had an abrupt change in the beginning of 1990s.The precipitation and reference evapotranspiration had little change during the growing period of winter wheat over last 50 years,however,the fluctuation of precipitation and reference evapotranspiration inter-annual was intensified.The reference evapotranspiration decreased in 1980s and increased slightly after 1990s.The first frost date was delayed and the last frost date was ahead of time,which caused decrease of the frost days over the last 50 years.The first frost date delayed significantly and the last frost date became earlier since the beginning of 2000s.更多还原