【摘要】 菏泽牡丹开花期短并且每年初花期离散度较大,这对办好菏泽国际牡丹花会造成严重困扰。本文通过牡丹初花期偏早、偏晚样本前期500hPa大气环流特征对比分析得出,牡丹初花期偏早和偏晚年份其前期环流有明显差异,因此,用1964-2006年牡丹花期序列对4月-翌年3月北半球500hPa月平均高度逐月进行相关分析,得出41个优势相关区,其中有4个是正相关区,其余为负相关区,正、负相关区出现有一定的时间性和区域性:正相关区出现在冬季太平洋和大西洋北部高纬地区,负相关区于上年4-5月在印度洋北部海区及赤道北太平洋海区出现并向北传播;再从优势相关区中筛选格点作为预报因子,建立一组牡丹花期中长期预报方程,最长预报时效超过150d。经几年试用效果较好。本方法对延长花卉花期预报时效有一定参考价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 Heze peony has a short florescence and its early florescence scattered by years,which has seriously impeded the Heze International Peony Festival.In this paper,comparison between the 500hPa atmospheric circulation characteristics of the early period of the typical years with in-advance and delayed peony early florescence has been conducted and a clear deviation was found.Subsequently,the correlation analysis was carried out by month on the 500hPa monthly average height of the northern hemisphere from April to March of the next year,utilizing the florescence series from 1964 to 2006.The analysis showed 41 regions with advantaged correlation,with four positive correlation and the others being negative correlation.The occurrence of the positive and negative correlation regions depended on time and area.The positive correlation occurredin winter at the high lattitude area in the north of the Pacific and the Atlantic.The negative correlation started between April and May of the last year in the north of the Indian and the northern equatorial Pacific,and then spreaded northwards.Using representative grid points in the positive correlation region as the forecast factors,the equation system for the mid and long-term forecast of the peony florescence was constructed.The effective forecast period of the model was found to be longer than 150 days.The model has been validated through tests over the past several years,and is expected to help increase the forecast period on the florescence of flowers.更多还原