【摘要】 目的分析评价传染病自动预警信息系统的预警方法与效果,为提高传染病预警效率提供依据。方法传染病自动预警信息系统采用移动百分位数法和单病例预警方法进行预警,利用流行病学统计方法对预警系统中的数据信息进行分析评价。结果 2009年该系统共发出有效预警信息1 964次,预警信号阳性率0.20%。不同地区预警信息分布差异有统计学意义,触发病种数与信息数量呈正相关变化(2χ=56.15,P<0.01;r=0.84,P<0.01);不同病种预警信息分布差异有统计学意义,触发的地区与信息数量呈正相关趋势(2χ=195.67,P<0.01;r=0.64,P<0.01)。结论系统具有高度敏感性,但阳性预测值较低。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To analyze the application of automatic early-warning system for communicable diseases for improving alert efficiency.Methods With dynamic percentile and one-case early-warning method,the early-warning of communicable disase system was established.Data from the system were analyzed with epidemiologic method.Results In 2009,the system issued 1964 times of alert information with a positive ratio of 0.20 percent.The regional distribution of the information was different significantly,showing a positive correlation between the number of disease case and the time of early-warning(χ2=56.15,P<0.01;r=0.84,P<0.01).The distribution of the information for different types of the diseases was also different significantly,showing a positive correlation between the prevalent strength of the disease and the amount of information in a specific area(χ2=195.67,P<0.01;r=0.64,P<0.01).Conclusion Positive predictive value is low,but the sensitivity is high for the early-warning information system.更多还原