【摘要】 利用2004～2010年逐日降雨量、滑坡泥石流历史地质灾害记录,分析研究了楚雄州滑坡泥石流地质灾害的时空分布状况及滑坡泥石流发生与降雨的关系.结果表明:滑坡泥石流的发生与当日及前期累积降雨量关系密切,其中,1～3 d累积降雨量20～30 mm、5 d累积降雨量30～40 mm、10 d累积降雨量50～60 mm、15 d累积降雨量80～90 mm等降雨条件下易发生滑坡泥石流灾害,相应的预警等级较高,进而根据本结论采用短期天气预报加前期实时降雨资料进行推理,得出了楚雄州地质灾害气象预警指标,为楚雄州进一步深入开展地质灾害气象预警以及预警模式的优化完善提供重要的预报依据.更多还原

【Abstract】 Using 2004—2010 year day after day rainfall amount material,the landslide mud-rock flow history geology disaster record,the analytical study Chuxiongzhou landslide mud-rock flow geology disaster’s space and time distribution condition and the landslide mud-rock flow occurred with the rainfall relations.The result indicated:The landslide mud-rock flow’s occurrence and the same day and the earlier period accumulation rainfall amount relations are close,1—3 d accumulation rainfall amount 20—30 mm,5 d accumulation rainfall amount 30—40 mm,10d accumulation rainfall amount 50—60 mm,under 15 d rainfall conditions and so on accumulation rainfall amount 80—90 mm easy to have the landslide mud-rock flow disaster,the corresponding early warning rank is high,then acts according to this conclusion to use short-term d to be mad that the forecast adds the earlier period real-time rainfall material to carry on the inference,has obtained the Chuxiongzhou geology disaster meteorology early warning target,further thoroughly carries out the geological disaster meteorology early warning as well as the early warning pattern optimized consummation for Chuxiongzhou provides the important forecast basis.更多还原