【摘要】 借助演化博弈论考虑了大群体成员下的战略联盟成员策略演化过程,建立了复制动态方程.指出了现有的确定性动态方程的不足,从人群工作互动角度探讨了策略演化过程中扰动的来源,在此基础上,对方程引入白噪声来反映过程所受到的随机干扰,建立了随机动力系统,借鉴Itö随机微分方程理论来分析战略联盟演化过程中成员行为稳定性的问题.给出了联盟保持稳定的一个充分条件和解体的一个充分条件,以此来解释战略联盟的有效性问题.利用计算机进行了仿真,针对结果将本模型与现有确定性的动力模型进行了比较,两次仿真实验测度了联盟演化的随机动力模型的有效性.更多还原

【Abstract】 The strategy developing process of strategic alliances was considered by evolutionary game, and a new dynamic replication equation was developed.The shortage of deterministic models that have existed was pointed out and the source of disturbance which the process has suffered from the angle of person-job interaction is analyzed,based on which,white noise drew to reflect the random disturbance, and then a stochastic dynamic system was established.The stability of strategy developing of strategic alliances was analyzed by Itö stochastic differential equation theory,after that a sufficient condition of stability and a sufficient condition of disorganization were provided,by which to explain the effectiveness of strategic alliances.To validate the correctness of the model,some numerical simulations were given at last and compared with deterministic models about the results.更多还原