【摘要】 应对危机时,何时启动预案是应急管理中需要解决的关键问题.太湖蓝藻危机代表一类生长速度或传播速度不确定的突发事件,以此为背景基于在线方法,考虑了预案启动后损失立即停止和损失逐渐减少至零两种情形.针对这两种情形,分别设计了应急预案启动策略,并证明它们是最优启动策略.最后对太湖蓝藻危机进行实例计算并分析了策略的竞争性能,研究结果具有一定的实际指导意义和参考价值.更多还原

【Abstract】 It is a key problem to decide the time at which to active a contingency plan in the area of emergency management.Blue-green algae crisis represents a kind of emergency management problem whose growth rate or diffusion speed is unexpected.Based on online method and taking this crisis as the background,this work presented contingency plan start-up strategies for two cases where the loss is ceased immediately and where the loss gradually decreases to zero respectively.These strategies were proved to be optimal.An illustration about blue-green algae crisis in Taihu Lake was given as well.The conclusions provide guidance for decision makers to solve crucial emergencies.更多还原