【摘要】 传统巴萨效应似乎难以解释我国的实际情况。本文从该效应的理论模型推导出发,比较不同模型形式采用最优计量模型。基于1978～2007年的数据建立VAR模型,运用协整分析、误差修正模型、脉冲响应、方差分解等方法,分析人民币对美元实际汇率与中美两国两部门生产率之间的关系。检验结果表明巴萨效应也能解释我国实际汇率走势变化的情况。服务业生产率对实际汇率的贡献更大。提高服务业份额和加快服务业生产率有利于缓解我国汇率的升值压力。更多还原

【Abstract】 It seems hard to be used to explain the situation in China by Balassa-Samuelson Effect.This paper deduces the theoretical model of this effect,compares different models,and chooses the best econometric model.It establishes a VAR model based on the data from 1978 to 2007,to study the relationship between the real exchange rate of RMB against the U.S.and the department productivities of China and U.S.A.It uses many methods,such as Cointegration,ECM,Impulse Response,Variance Decomposition and so on.The results show that Balassa-Samuelson Theory can be used to explain the trend of our real exchange rate.And service productivity plays an important role in real exchange rate,so improving both the share and productivity of service help ease the pressure on China’s exchange rate appreciation.更多还原