【摘要】 心理学和行为经济学的研究表明,人们的判断和决策往往受到心态和情绪的影响,企业管理者在经营活动中表现出的超出一般自信水平的情绪状态称为管理者过度自信。这种"非理性"的管理者过度自信与企业绩效是否存在相关关系,本文使用披露了业绩预告的上市公司盈利预测偏差作为衡量管理者过度自信的指标,对我国沪、深股市2005—2009年存在管理者过度自信的上市公司样本进行了研究,发现企业经营绩效与"非理性"的管理者过度自信存在正相关关系。管理者过度自信的企业相对于其他企业能够得到2.8%的业绩提高,这种与业绩正相关的关系在国有企业当中尤为明显。更多还原

【Abstract】 The study of psychology and behavioral economics indicates that people’s decisions are always affected by mind and emotion.Managerial overconfidence is a kind of irrational behavior when managers show extraordinary confidence over their companies.Is there anything good related to managerial overconfidence? The paper analyzes listed companies which disclosed performance forecasts from 2005 to 2009 in Shanghai Stock Market and Shenzhen Stock Market,and thinks that there exists managerial overconfidence when there is a deviation between the forecast and the fact in the company.The study shows that there is a positive correlation between firm performance and "irrational" managerial overconfidence.The companies in which there exists managerial overconfidence can have a performance improvement of 2.8% compared with other companies,and the performance improvement is more obvious in state-owned enterprises.更多还原