【摘要】 1986年至2009年间,人民币汇率制度几经变迁,人民币/美元名义汇率水平也多次呈现出跳跃性的变动,这使基于CPI等价格指数构造出的人民币/美元实际汇率指数含有明显的异动成分。本文运用异常值分析方法,分离了这段时间人民币/美元实际汇率中的异动成分,并估计了异动成分的性质和大小。这些异动都是人民币/美元名义汇率的贬值造成的实际汇率的永久性贬值。剔除这些异常变动后,人民币实际汇率序列呈现出明显的确定升值趋势。更多还原

【Abstract】 During the period of 1986 to 2009,RMB nominal exchange rates regimes have changed several times,and RMB /USD nominal exchange rates always have leaps.RMB /USD real exchange rates based on CPI index appears notable abnormal changes.Using the outliers analysis approach,we strip off the structural changes imposed by institutional changes,and estimate types and scales of these structural changes.All these changes are LS devaluation resulting from institutional changes.The clean data separated from original RMB real exchange rate shows that it has a deterministic appreciation trend.更多还原