【摘要】 选取2001—2010年间的季度数据,利用误差修正模型和脉冲响应函数对中国M2/GDP比率对资产价格变化的影响进行实证研究。结果表明:M2/GDP比率与股票价格存在负相关关系,同时对股票价格的影响还存在着时延性,M2/GDP比率对房地产价格的影响几乎为零。这一结论为中国股市价格泡沫提供了一个早期预警指标,具有很强的政策意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 This article takes 2001-2010 quarterly data,uses error correction model and impulse response function to empirically analyze the impact of China’s M2/GDP ratio on asset prices change.Results show that: M2/GDP ratio and the stock price is negatively correlated to the stock price,and the influence of ductility is still exist;while M2/GDP ratio on the influence of real estate prices are almost zero.This conclusion for China’s stock price bubble provides an early warning index,and has strong policy significance.更多还原