【摘要】 不同GCMs的输出变量在区域上的表现差异较大。以11个统计特征量为基础,构建了基于秩评分的评价方法,分别对比分析了21个GCMs的17个输出变量在松花江流域与ERA-40再分析资料的吻合程度,以秩评分进行了定量评价。结果显示:不同GCMs对高空气象变量的模拟表现与地面气候要素的模拟表现并不一致,IPSL:CM4、GISS:ER、HadCM3和CSIRO:MK30在松花江流域高空气象变量模拟方面表现相对较好,而CSIRO:MK30、CGCM3.1_T63、GFDL:CM21和BCCR:BCM20在地面气候要素的模拟方面表现相对较好。综合评分结果显示,IPSL:CM4、CSIRO:MK30、GISS:ER和BCCR:CM20在松花江流域的综合表现相对较好。更多还原

【Abstract】 There are great differences in the regional outputs from different GCMs.With the combination of 11 statistical characteristics,a score-based multi-criteria method was developed to assess the performance of 21 GCMs with 5 climatic variables(air temperature,relative humidity,zonal wind speed,meridian wind speed,geopotential height) at 3 high-altitudes(850hPa,700hPa,500hPa) and precipitation,air temperature in the Songhuajiang River Basin.The results show that there is not consistency for GCMs’ performance between high-altitude variables and ground climatic variables,IPSL:CM4,GISS:ER,HadCM3 and CSIRO:MK30 show relatively better performance for high-altitude meteorological variables,while CSIRO:MK30,CGCM3.1_T63,GFDL:CM21 and BCCR:BCM20 show relatively better performance for ground climatic variables in the Songhuajiang River Basin.Comprehensive assessment shows that the GCMs with relatively better performance in the Songhuajiang River Basin are IPSL:CM4,CSIRO:MK30,GISS:ER and BCCR:CM20.更多还原