【摘要】 研究出口周期的景气循环对于进一步扩大出口及推动整个国民经济的发展具有重要的意义.基于传统的先行指标体系和SW景气指数方法能够为出口周期的监测和预警提供参考,而近年来逐渐完善的广义动态因子模型基于频域分析方法,在处理高维数据方面比前两种方法更具有优势,同时该方法在拐点的探测方面也具有重要的作用.作者首先对三种指数构建方法进行了理论上的介绍;其次,分别运用三种方法构建了中国出口增长循环的一致及先行指数;最后,对三种方法在中国出口周期分析上的表现进行了比较与评价,得出了一些重要的结论.更多还原

【Abstract】 Research on the export cycle is of great significance,it can help to improve the export volume further and to promote the whole national economic development.The traditional leading indicators approach and Stock-Watson prosperity index are useful methods in monitoring and warning the export cycle,but they cannot do well in dealing with the high dimensional data.Based on the frequency domain analysis technique,the generalized dynamic-factor model provides a better way to deal with the high dimensional data than the first two methods;it also plays an important role in probing the turning points.In this paper,we extend the generalized dynamic -factor model to export cycle analysis.First,a brief introduction is given on these three methods.Second,coincidence index are separately constructed for China’s export growth rate cycle using the above three methods.Finally,performances of the three prosperity analysis methods are compared and evaluated,and some important conclusions are obtained.更多还原