【摘要】 国家"十二五"规划确定将在内蒙古锡林郭勒盟建设国家重点大型煤电基地。煤电一体化开发将大大地推动锡盟的区域经济发展,但也可能会对这一典型草原地区和重要生态屏障地区的生态环境造成不利影响。采用物料平衡法和指数增长模型对2001—2009年锡林郭勒盟SO2排放量与人均GDP做了相关性分析,发现二者关系基本符合环境库兹涅茨曲线,呈较缓和倒U型曲线,拐点在人均GDP35000—40000元,目前已过曲线拐点,SO2排放量缓步下降。对锡盟煤电一体化开发情景下(2012—2020)的SO2排放及人均GDP进行预测,结果显示SO2排放量将随经济发展呈上升趋势,表明煤电一体化开发会使环境库兹涅茨曲线的拐点后延,虽然到2020年SO2排放量仍然没有超出区域大气环境容量,但将接近环境容量极限,会给当地环境带来明显压力;基于以上判断,进而从制度、技术、市场三方面出发,探讨了促进锡盟煤电一体化产业建设与环境保护协调发展的对策。更多还原

【Abstract】 The Xilingol League of Inner Mongolia,where Xilingol Grassland National Nature Reserve is located in,is an important sand-fixing ecological function area of China and the important ecological barrier for Beijing and Tianjin.It has been designated as one of the important national bases of coal mining and electricity generation in China′s 12th Five-Year Plan for national economic and social development.The integration of coal mining and electricity generation in the Xilingol League will play an important role in national energy strategy,providing benefits that will not only improve the utilization of energy resources,but also substantially promote regional economic development.At the same time,such integration will significantly affect the local ecological environment characterized by extensive grasslands and important ecological shelters,especially due to substantial air pollution emissions released into local atmospheric environments.Environmental protection is a key ingredient of regional sustainable development.Although the status of the local environment has been studied by some scholars,focusing primarily on areas targeted for resource exploration and utilization in terms of soil and water loss and environmental capacity in the Xilingol League,there has been less research on the environmental impacts of economic development in the Xilingol League.This article examines the impacts of integration of coal mining and electricity generation on regional environment in the Xilingol League.Using SO2 and per-capita GDP as environmental and economic indicators,respectively,the correlation between local environmental health and economic development was studied.Based on a material balance method and exponential growth model,we analyzed the correlation of SO2 emissions and per capita GDP from 2001 to 2009 in the Xilingol League.We found that the relation between them followed the rule of the Environmental Kuznets Curve(EKC),with the flex point appearing at 35000—40000 RMB of per capita GDP.At that point the amount of SO2 emissions passed the flex point and declined slowly.Prediction of regional SO2 emissions and per capita GDP under the scenario of integration of coal mining and electricity generation in the Xilingol League showed that SO2 emissions would increase with economic development from 2012 to 2020,which suggests that the flex point of the Environmental Kuznets Curve would occur several years later and SO2 emissions would exert more pressure on the regional environment.Although the level of SO2 emissions would not exceed the local atmospheric environmental capacity,it would approach the maximum of environmental capacity in 2020.It can be predicted that SO2 emissions will bring more pressure on the regional environment and that the process of integration of coal and electricity industry in the Xilingol League will have significant negative impacts on local grassland ecosystems.Finally,based on the above analysis,some suggestions with respect to institutions,technology,and markets were proposed to optimize the allocation of resources,limit pollution emissions during industrial processes of coal mining and electricity generation,and strengthen the integration of coal and electricity industrial construction and environmental protection.This in turn will help foster a more coordinated and balanced program of development in the Xilingol League.更多还原