【摘要】 在分析凌汛成因影响因素的基础上,以可变模糊集理论为核心,采用二元比较法确定指标权重,结合统计相关分析确定预报因子相关程度,提出一种基于可变模糊综合分析的冰凌预测模型。将该模型应用于黄河内蒙古段开河日期的预测,结果表明该模型计算简便,对开河日期的预测具有较高的精度。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the analysis of various factors for ice floods,an ice forecast model with the variable fuzzy synthetic analysis as the core was proposed by using the binary comparison method to determine the index weight and the correlation degrees among various forecast factors according to the statistical correlation analysis.It was applied to the forecast of break-up date of rives in Inner Mongolia.The results show that the proposed model is simple in calculation and has higher forecast precision for break-up date.更多还原