【摘要】 针对传统相对海平面变化分析方法均将理论海平面变化和地面沉降进行的叠加分析,本文讨论和分析了近20年来全球理论海平面上升速率加快背景下的区域海平面变化速率,利用灰色线性回归组合模型预测上海地区海平面变化趋势。考虑了上海地面沉降发展的新特点,以及长江流域来沙显著减少和河口大型工程建设对上海地区相对海平面变化的影响。在流域来沙量显著减少但来水量变化不大情况下,流域大坝的坝下冲刷使得河槽刷深,河口水位降低,同时长江口深水航道整治工程和促淤围垦工程束狭入海口,使得潮位站水位发生变化,两者的综合效应是目前研究长江口相对海平面变化时必须考虑的重要因素。更多还原

【Abstract】 Relative sea level change reported before has been acquired by the global theoretical sea level rise and local land subsidence.New components consist of the relative sea level change by the strong human interventions in the watershed and estuary of Yangtze River for the recent 20 years in Shanghai are concerned in the present paper.These new components are the regional sea level change with an increasing global theoretical sea-level rise,a decreasing land subsidence controlled by the densely high building and subway,and the water level lowering due to the erosion of channel riverbed with the sediment discharge decrease in the Yangtze River estuary caused by large-scale hydraulic engineering as Three-Gauge Dam in the watershed,and then water level change at gauge stations with the width narrowing of estuarine channels by the engineering as land reclamation and deep navigation channel regulation,fresh water reservoir.Nevertheless,impact of these new parameters should be estimated and predicted and then the combined regional relative sea level change could be predicted by a linear regression analysis integrated with grey system proposed by the authors in the Yangtze River estuary in the 21st century.更多还原