【摘要】 根据泰安市1951～2008年的气温与降水资料,利用线性拟合、Mann-Kendall、小波分析等方法,研究了泰安市近58年气温与降水的变化倾向、突变和周期等特性。结果表明:近58年来,泰安市年平均气温呈显著上升趋势并且在1993年发生了增温突变。泰安市年降水呈减少趋势,但变化趋势不显著,没有发生明显的突变。年平均气温存在准4、61、4、20、29年的周期性变化,其中准62、9年周期振荡最为强烈。年降水存在准3、5、7、10、16年的周期性变化,其中准5、7年周期振荡最为强烈。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the temperature and precipitation data in Taian City from 1951 to 2008,the climate change in Taian City was studied in detail by using the methods of linear regression,wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendall test.The results were as followed: in the recent 58 years,the annual mean temperature increased significantly and abrupt change took place from low to high in 1993;the annual precipitation showed decreasing tendency and there was no abrupt change;the annual mean temperature had periodic variations of quasi-4,6,14,20 and 29 years and the oscillation of quasi-6 and 29 years was the strongest;the annual precipitation had periodic variations of quasi-3,5,7,10 and 16 years and the oscillation of quasi-5 and 7 years was the strongest.更多还原