【摘要】 采用美国多部门研制的WRF模式及其四维变分同化系统,对2008年5月长江中下游地区一次强对流暴雨天气过程进行了数值模拟试验;并分别将质量控制前和质量控制后的华东地区地面加密自动站资料加入模式进行四维变分同化试验,与实况进行了对比。结果表明:模拟试验能较好的模拟此次降水过程;而采用四维变分同化经质量控制后的地面加密资料,模式效果最好,使降水预报在降水落区和降水量上都获得较为明显的改善;但质量控制前四维同化改善效果不明显。这说明地面资料的质量控制很重要,它能去伪存真。有效地利用地面加密自动站资料,能使资料的加入与模式更协调,从而得到了最佳的模拟效果。更多还原

【Abstract】 A strong convective rainstorm in May of 2008 in the Yangtze River region has been simulated by using the WRF and its four-dimensional variational assimilation system.The results indicated that the simulation and the assimilation tests were capable of simulating the precipitation process.But the 4DVAR test with quality control is the best and it can significantly improve the entire precipitation and rainfall region forecast.But without quality control,the 4DVAR had little effect.It shows that the quality control is important and can eliminate the false and retain the true.Effective use of AWS data enables the information to be coordinated with the model and to obtain the best simulation results.更多还原