【摘要】 本文利用1982—2008年南京农户的收入消费数据,在自适应预期和持久收入假说的框架下,估计了南京农户消费与收入的长期均衡关系。结果表明:增加收入可以增加消费,农户的长期边际消费倾向在1982—1997年、1998—2002年2、003—2008年前后三个时间段存在显著差异,在1998—2002年最低,说明这阶段预防性储蓄增加。随后利用误差修正模型(ECM)估计了三个时段的短期动态消费函数,并引入了收入不确定性的解释变量,估计结果与长期消费函数一致:收入的增长能加速消费的增长,收入的不确定性在第二阶段表现为显著不利于消费的增长。所以,增加农户的消费,关键是提高农民的收入,改善农民的收入消费预期,以减少不确定性而导致的防卫性储蓄。更多还原

【Abstract】 The paper estimated the long-term equilibrium relationship between consumption and income under the frame of self-adaptive expectation and permanent income hypothesis with the rural Nanjing household data from 1982 to 2008.The result showed that the income increase stimulates consumption and there is remarkable difference between the three periods 1982—1997,1998—2002,2003—2008 in the long-term MPC(Marginal Propensity to Consume)with 1998—2002 as the lowest,indicating the increase in the preventive savings in the period.The paper also estimated the short-term dynamic consumption function of the three periods by error correction model(ECM) and the uncertainty variable is applied to ECM.The results were the same as the long-term consumption function: raising income sped up consumption and the income uncertainty displayed negative influence on the consumption in the second period.Therefore,to raise the farmers’ consumption,the key is to raise their income,improve their income consumption expectation and reduce the precautionary savings resulted from uncertainty.更多还原