【摘要】 低温冷害是制约东北地区粮食产量的主要气象因素,了解低温冷害的演变规律及其对粮食产量的影响对于防灾减灾、合理搭配农作物品种熟期具有重要的指导意义。应用东北地区73个气象站1960—2004年温度资料以及ArcGIS地理信息系统技术和谐波分析方法,分析了≥10℃活动积温和持续低温指数的时空分布特征,评价了其对粮食和水稻产量的影响。结果表明,活动积温表现出由南向北、由西向东减少的趋势,持续低温指数表现出由南向北、由西向东增加的趋势。谐波分析表明,东北地区活动积温存在着明显的2.5~4a的周期振荡,持续低温指数主要表现为2.5~5a和10a左右的周期振荡。粮食产量的波动带有明显的活动积温和持续低温指数的信息,纬度越高,粮食产量受活动积温的影响越大,受持续低温指数的影响越小。活动积温是制约东北地区粮食和水稻产量的最主要因素,但持续低温指数的影响也不容忽视,持续低温指数每增加1d,会导致辽宁、吉林、黑龙江水稻平均单产分别下降6.2%、5.8%和2.1%。更多还原

【Abstract】 Chilling damage is the main meteorological disaster affecting the grain crop yield in Northeast China. In recent years, grain crop production reduced severely, which mainly was due to planting late maturity crop blindly. So it is important to understand the tempo-spatial patterns of chilling damage and their impacts on grain crop yield for disaster prevention and reduction, and proper variety arrangement. In this paper, the routine meteorological data(73 stations, 45 years) in Northeast China were used to analyze the tempo-spatial characteristics of active accumulated temperature(AAT) and consecutive cold day index(CCDI), by means of geographical information system technique(ArcGIS9.2, ESRI Co., Ltd) and harmonics analysis method. The results showed that the AAT decreased from southwest to northeast, but the CCDI had the inversed patterns, the AAT showed 2.5~4 a oscillations clearly, and the CCDI′s were 2.5~5 a and 10 a oscillation periods in recent 45 a. Correlation analysis showed that the grain crop yield varied with AAT and CCDI, the grain crop yield depended on AAT closely at higher altitude region, but the relationships between yield and CCDI were closer at lower altitude region. The AAT was the main factor affecting the grain crop rice yields, but the impacts of CCDI could not be neglected. The rice yield would decreased by 6.2%, 5.8% and 1.2% in Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang by one day increase of CCDI, respectively.更多还原