【摘要】 1996年以来,黑龙江省草地螟第三暴发周期持续至今,危害日益加重。以1959—2008年黑龙江省28个国家基本站气象资料以及草地螟暴发期等资料为基础,分析了黑龙江省草地第三暴发周期的气候特征及风险概率。结果表明:近50 a来,黑龙江省年平均气温、年平均最低气温呈显著的上升趋势,通过0.001显著性检验,气温在1988年前后出现突变。其他要素如降水量、降水日数、风速和日照时数均呈减少趋势,但只有年日照时数和年平均风速的减少趋势通过了显著性检验。哈尔滨草地螟始发日期与同期平均气温、日最高气温、最低气温、最小相对湿度关系密切,本地越冬虫源春季羽化对气温、相对湿度敏感性较高;同时,始见日期与最大风速的风向相关较为密切,可能是由于外地虫源对风向敏感性较高。通过对黑龙江省草地螟高峰期首日的风险概率分析,得出草地螟高峰期出现在5月最后一个候的风险概率为23.6%;出现在6月上旬的风险概率为36.6%;出现在6月中旬的风险概率为24.0%;出现在6月下旬的风险概率为14.4%。更多还原

【Abstract】 The pest hazard becomes more and more severe since the meadow moth(Loxostege sticticalis) came into the third outbreak cycle from 1996 to now in Heilongjiang province.Based on meteorological data in 28 weather stations from 1959 to 2008,including average temperature,average maximum temperature,average minimum temperature,precipitation,sunshine duration,average wind speed,average relatively humidity,and meadow moth data,including the pest peak period and emergence date,the climatic characteristics of meadow moth during the third outbreak cycle and its risk probability were analyzed.The results indicate that the mean annual air temperature and the mean annual minimum air temperature are in increasing trends,and both are passed by significance testing at 0.001 level.An abrupt change of air temperature occurs in 1988 by Mann-Kendall test.Annual precipitation,precipitation days,wind speed and sunshine duration are in decreasing trends.Only annual sunshine duration and mean wind speed are passed by significance testing at 0.05 level.The emergence day of meadow moth connects closely with the daily average temperature,the average maximum temperature,the average minimum temperature and the minimum relative humidity.The reason may be that the eclosion of local overwintering pest is affected highly by temperature and relative humidity.At the same time,the emergence date of meadow moth is also close to the direction of the daily maximum wind speed,and it may be that the immigrating pest is affected by the wind direction.The risk probability of the first date of pest peak period in Heilongjiang province is evaluated.The risk probabilities that the first date of pest peak period occurs in the last 5-day of May are 23.6%,and those in the first 10-day,in the middle 10-day and in the last 10-day of June are 36.6%,24.0% and 14.4%,respectively.更多还原