【摘要】 引入一种新的预测垃圾产量的方法——组合预测方法,该法能够综合利用不同预测方法提供的信息提高预测精度。结合厦门市1996～2008年的垃圾产量,分析不同预测方法的预测精度,并预测5年后的垃圾产量。通过研究发现:单一预测模型中,线性回归法和年增长率法的预测结果偏小,误差较大,灰色理论GM(1,1)的预测结果偏大,误差较小,基本在10%以内;组合预测模型的预测精度高于单一预测模型;厦门市城市生活垃圾年平均增长率约为10%,低于国民生产总值和社会消费品零售总额年平均增长率,高于城镇居民消费性支出年平均增长率。更多还原

【Abstract】 A new,combined forecasting method of municipal solid waste(MSW) production was introduced to improve the forecasting accuracy.Based on MSW production of Xiamen city from year 1996 to 2008,the forecast accuracy of different forecasting methods was analysed and the MSW production in 2013 was forecasted.The results show that(1) for single forecasting model,the forecast result of linear regression and annual growth rate is lower with considerable errors;the results of Grey GM(1,1) model are larger with smaller errors,which is less than 10%.(2) The forecast accuracy of combined forecasting method is higher than that of the single forecasting model.(3) The average growth rate of MSW of Xiamen is about 10%,which is lower than the annual growth rate of the gross national product and total retail sales of social consumer goods and higher than the average annual growth rate of consumption expenditure of urban residents更多还原