【摘要】 利用1964-2008年湖南省生猪年出栏量的统计数据,运用线性趋势法、H-P滤波法和B-P滤波法,分别测度了湖南省生猪生产波动周期。研究结果表明,1964-2008年期间湖南省生猪生产出现了8次波动,且波动具有幅度大、大周期内有小周期、波谷深度有变浅趋势、扩张期短、收缩期长等特征。该结果是进一步研究分析湖南省历次生猪生产波动的深层次成因的必要基础。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper uese the statistical data about the amount of slaughtering hog in Hunan province from 1964 to 2008 to estimate the fluctuation cycle of hog production in Hunan province separately by the linear trend method,H-P filter and B-P filter.The results show that eight fluctuations of hog production occurred in Hunan during 1964-2008,which have the characteristics of big fluctuation range,major cycles embodying minor cycles,the tendency of trough depth becoming shoal,the short expansion period and the long contraction period.The above result is an essential foundation for further studying deep-seated reasons for all previous fluctuations of hog production in Hunan.更多还原