【摘要】 基于2005年7月～2011年2月的省际月度数据,通过面板协整和面板GLS方法对人民币汇率的传递效应进行了实证研究。研究表明,人民币汇率传递弹性的估计值为0.22,即人民币汇率升值1%导致CPI增加0.22%;对国内物价水平影响最为明显的是货币发行量以及通货膨胀预期,两者对物价的影响弹性系数分别达到0.484和0.46。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on an inter-provincial panel data model using monthly dataset from July 2005 to February 2011,the paper argues that there is a lower but clear existing pass-through of exchange rate to domestic inflation.The decision indicates the elasticity of pass-through is about 0.22,namely an appreciation of 1% of RMB lead to an increase of 0.22% of CPI.The most significant factor on domestic price are money supply and inflation expectation,both of the elasticity of them are respectively 0.486 and 0.46.更多还原