【摘要】 通过应用STAR(平滑转换自回归)模型对我国货币需求的误差修正模型进行非线性的实证检验,结果证明该模型呈现显著的非线性特征。具体形式为指数平滑自回归(ESTAR),其转换变量为滞后一期的真实国民收入,转换速度显著,但是较慢,转换函数的斜率值为-2.64。该结论与我国经济发展状况相吻合,反映了货币政策调控的时滞性。本文建议采用非线性模型研究货币需求函数,同时提高货币政策在不同机制的转换速度,降低时滞。更多还原

【Abstract】 Using the STAR Model,the authors made a nonlinear empirical test of the error correction model for the money demand of our country.The result proved that the model showed a significant nonlinear characteristic.The form of it was ESTAR,and the conversion variable was the real national income lagged behind for a period.The conversion rate was significant but slow and the slope value of the transfer function was-2.64.The conclusions were consistent with the economic development in our country,reflecting the time lag of the control of monetary policy.The authors suggest using nonlinear model to study money demand function,accelerating the transition rate of monetary policy in different mechanisms and reducing time lag.更多还原