【摘要】 我国股票市场非周期循环的研究普遍存在研究样本抽样不足和股票价格时间序列存在短期相关性等问题。笔者构建了一个两阶段的研究方法,通过对原始数据的平稳化处理来解决时间序列的不足抽样和短期相关性带来的数据偏误问题,对处理后数据利用R/S分析来研究我国股票市场存在的非周期循环,结果表明沪市分别存在约为260天的非周期循环,深市存在约为350天和1350天的两个非周期循环。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the past research into the non-periodic cycles of Chinese stock market,there existed the problems of insufficient samples and time series correlation of stock prices.The authors construct a two-stage process.First,the authors overcame the insufficient sampling and short-term correlation by collecting and smoothing the complete original dataset.Then the authors applied R/S analysis on these worked data to probe into the non-periodic cycles of stock price fluctuation in Chinese stock markets.The empirical results show that here was a non-periodic cycle of 260 days in Shanghai Stock Market,and also two non-periodic cycles of 350 days and 1350 days in Shenzhen Stock Market.更多还原