【摘要】 0915号台风"巨爵(Koppu)"于2009年9月15日07时在广东台山登陆,给受灾地区人民生命财产安全造成了巨大的损失。为研究台风风场各计算方法的准确度,本文利用多种计算模型,以及海洋站的实测风速,对各方法得到的风场结构、各站最大风速和风速过程曲线等进行了对比分析。结果表明:MM5预报风场在台风中心计算强度偏小,但比NCEP资料结果更接近实况,而对于台风外围风场而言,MM5预报结果在台风左侧比NCEP结果要明显小,在右侧则普遍偏大。采用MM5和经验法进行再构造后的风场结果表明,虽然对于整个风场结果的刻划更加完整,但在量值上,相对于MM5预报风场而言并没有明显改进。结论:本次台风期间MM5模式的预报风场较好,经验法再构造风场对其改进效果不明显。更多还原

【Abstract】 TY0915(Koppu) landed at around 7:00 a.m.at Taishan City,Guangdong Province,causing great loss of lives and properties in the affected areas.Various wind filed calculation methods and marine stations’in-situ wind observations were used to study the calculation velocity.Comparison and analysis for wind filed structure,maximum value and time series of wind speed for marine stations were made.It was shown that in typhoon cen-tral area the wind intensity forecasted by MM5 was weaker than that observed,while it was still closer to the ob-servation than NCEP data.In left part of the periphery of typhoon,MM5 forecast wind speed was mostly smaller than NCEP data,while in right part MM5 result was generally larger.Studies on the wind filed regenerated from MM5 model and Jelesnianski’s method showed a finer description of the whole wind field structure,while the re-generated result had little improvement compared with MM5 result in view of quality.The conclusion was: the wind filed obtained from MM5 forecasting was preferable for TY0915,and the regenerated wind field showed un-obvious improvement compared with MM5 result.更多还原