【摘要】 采用基于元胞自动机的SLEUTH模型模拟上海市1988～2004年间的城市化进程.上海地区的发展进程主要是以中心向外围拓展的面状城市化,加之沿交通干线的线状城市化.城市化的主要影响因子包括人口增长和经济增长.SLEUTH模型与系统动力学模型相耦合,模拟了3个情景设置(基础情景、生态优先情景和道路交通规划引导情景)下2005～2020年间城市拓展及其对环境的影响.结果表明,道路交通规划的实施将诱导较快的城市拓展;生态优先的发展方案更能提高土地利用效率.3种情景对城市户籍人口增长的影响差异不大.3个不同的情景所造成的污染物排放也不相同,生态优先情景引起的排放较小,而道路交通规划引导情景产生更多的污染排放.同时,工业污染排放增加趋势大于生活污染排放.合理规划并限制城市的拓展不仅能促进经济的高效和集约发展,还有利于城市环境质量的改善.更多还原

【Abstract】 The SLEUTH model based on cellular automata has been applied to simulate the process of urbanization in Shanghai from 1988~2004,which was characterized mainly by urban expansion from downtown to the periphery plus expansion along the trunk roads. The main factors controlling the urban expansion were the population increase and economic development. A comprehensive model based on System Dynamics (SD) integrated with the SLEUTH model was used to simulate the impacts of the urban expansion on society,the economy,and especially the ecological environment from 2005 to 2020. Three scenarios of the urban expansion with the current trend (basic scenario),with ecological restriction (scenario A),and with a road traffic plan (scenario B) were established. The results showed that implementation of the road traffic plan would significantly increase the rate of urban expansion,while ecological restriction would increase the efficiency of land use. The three scenarios resulted in a similar expansion of the registered population,but in quite different industrial and domestic waste emissions. The road traffic plan would lead to more emissions than the plan with ecological restriction. In all scenarios,industrial emissions increase more than domestic ones. We conclude that the rational plan and appropriate restrictions on urban expansion would not only lead to a well-functioning economy,but also an improvement of the urban environmental quality.更多还原