【摘要】 消费、投资和出口通过扩大需求促进经济增长,而物流则通过物流供给使消费、投资、出口需求得到满足,进而间接促进经济增长。文章协整分析结果表明,消费、投资、出口和物流供给之间存在长期均衡关系,1%的消费和出口需求得到满足将分别减轻1.08%和0.35%的物流供给压力,投资增加1%将增加1.70%的物流供给能力。Granger因果关系检验结果表明,消费、出口在短期和长期均是物流供给的原因,投资短期内不是物流供给的原因,但长期内是物流供给的原因;物流供给短期内不是消费的原因,但长期内,物流供给和投资、出口一起成为消费的原因,投资和出口在短期和长期均不受系统内其它变量的影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 Consumption,investment and export promotes economic growth by expanding demands,and logistics meets the needs of consumption,investment and export by logistics supply,thus indirectly promotes the economic growth.The result of co-integration analysis shows that there exits a long-term equilibrium relationship between consumption,investment,export and logistics supply.1% of the consumption and export needs met will alleviate the pressure of the logistics supply by 1.08% and 0.35% respectively,1% increased investment will increase the logistics supply capacity by 1.70%.The result of Granger Causality Test shows that consumption and export are the cause of logistics supply in the short-term and long-term,investment is not the cause of the logistics supply in short-term,but it is in long-term;Logistics supply is not the cause for consumption in short-term,but it is along with investment and export in long-term,both investment and export are not subject to the impact of the other variables within the system whether in short-term or in long-term.更多还原