【摘要】 社会经济系统是受多因素影响的多层次、非线性复杂系统,因素之间的关系往往具有灰色特征.另外现有的相关统计数据往往偏少且不完整,使得灰色预测方法在社会经济系统中进行预测时受到青睐.在灰色关联度计算的基础上,将处于同一关联层次的指标集成为一个相应的无量纲指标,以关联度值作为权系数进行归一化得到其行为序列后,建立相应的多变量灰色模型进行预测,可以较好的解决灰色指标选择的问题,同时模型还具有较高的精度和拟合优度,可以得到较好的预测结果.更多还原

【Abstract】 Social economic system is a multi-level,nonlinear complex system affected by many factors with grey characteristics.Existing statistical data are few and incomplete,which makes grey method apply widely.On the basis of grey incidence,we integrate the factors with the same correlation level into a factor with no dimension,and take grey incidence value as weight coefficient by normalizing to generate sequence data,and set up multi-variable forecasting model.In this way the method facilitates the choice of grey factors.Meanwhile,the integration model invites sound forecasting results in terms of accuracy and fitness.更多还原