【摘要】 根据1961-2007年河北省142个测站的冰雹实测资料、月平均气温和NCEP再分析资料,利用M-K突变检验、小波分析及相关分析等统计分析方法,分析了47年来河北省冰雹天气的时空分布特征、历史演变规律以及多雹年与少雹年的环流特征。结果表明,河北省冰雹日数年际变化明显,1994年有明显的突变,此后,雹日数减少了;河北冰雹日数存在20年和11年的准周期变化;河北省冰雹日数与500hPa平均风速呈正相关,与平均气温呈负相关。环流特征分析表明,雹日数突变前后5～7月平均环流的差异也是明显的,最显著的区域在内蒙古东部和黑海附近;多、少雹年5～7月500hPa平均环流的差异明显,最显著的区域在河北和地中海附近;多、少雹年5～7月各月的平均环流特征分析表明,多、少雹年5月平均环流差异不大,但6、7月的环流差异明显。降雹是小尺度天气,但出现频次与大尺度环流有关,其环流特征可以作为冰雹气候预测的依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Using the hail and monthly average temperature observation data at 142 stations in Hebei Province and NCEP reanalysis data from 1961 to 2007,the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of hail and variation rule with time and circulation features of more and less hail years are analyzed by the statistical analysis methods of Mann-Kendall test,wavelet analysis,and correlation analysis.The results show that day numbers of hail have obvious interannual variation,an abrupt change of day number of hail occur in 1994 and there are quasi-periodic variation of 20 and 11 years in day number of hail.The day number of hail in Hebei Province has obvious positive correlation with 500 hPa wind speed and obvious negative correlation with the temperature.Before and after the abrupt change,the difference of mean circulation from May to July is obvious.The significant areas are in eastern Inner Mongolia and nearby the Black Sea.The difference of mean circulation from May to July is also obvoius in more and less hail years.The significant areas are in Hebei Province and nearby Mediterranean.The circulation characteristics of more and less hail years in each month from May to July show that the differences of mean circulation in more and less hail years are not significant in May and the difference is significant in June and July. It is shown that hail is small scale weather and its appearance frequency is related to macroscale circulation.Therefore, the analyzed results can be used for hailfall climatic prediction.更多还原