【摘要】 收集三江平原东部地区绥滨县、抚远县、同江市的多年(1967-2008年)降水数据,采用线性倾向回归、M-K检验、小波分析等方法研究了近50年来该地区降水变化特征;同时运用标准降水指数(SPI)和降水距平指数计算法,分析了近50年来三江平原东部地区旱涝规律。结果表明:1、本地区多年降水呈下降趋势,降幅最大达20mm/10a;2、春旱与夏涝是影响本地农业生产的主要气象灾害,近年来,旱情频次增多,影响春播质量、作物生长、农产品产量和质量。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the precipitation data observed from meteorological stations in Suibin,Fuyuan and Tongjiang of eastern Sanjiang plain from 1967 to 2008,the precipitation characteristics in the past 50 years were analyzed by linear regression analyses,M-K test and wavelet analysis.And the drought-flood,laws were analyzed by compared between the standard precipitation index and the precipitation anomaly in the last 50 years.The results showed that: 1.Precipitation in the region declined for many years,the largest decline to 20mm/10a.2.Spring drought and summer flood are the main meteorological disasters that influence local agricultural production.In recent years,the frequency of drought was increasing,impact spring quality,crop growth,yield and quality of agricultural products.更多还原