【摘要】 新加坡将汇率作为货币政策的中介目标,其BBC制度又是中间形式汇率制度的一个典型,故研究其汇率的运行有重要的现实意义。2005年人民币汇改隐含BBC的逻辑,所以本研究对理解人民币汇率的决定机制也会有所参照。本文在多元线性回归的基础上引入外汇市场压力变量并采用了多结构改变模型(MSCM),通过对新加坡1999年以来的数据测算得到其BBC汇率制度的各组参数,包括汇率篮子的权重分配、权重调整的时点、新元对整个篮子的长期升值趋势和外汇市场干预程度。本文还对比了分析所得结果与新加坡金管局定期对外公布的货币政策立场,发现二者的匹配程度比较好。更多还原

【Abstract】 Singapore chooses exchange rate as the intermediate target of its monetary policy while its BBC regime is a typical example of intermediate exchange rate regimes.Therefore it is of practical significance to investigate Singapore’s exchange rate operation.This paper also provides some clues on the understanding of exchange rate determining mechanism of Renminbi due to the underlying BBC logic of China’s exchange rate reform in 2005.We imposed Exchange Market Pressure variable into our multiple linear regression and adopted Multiple Structural Change Model in testing Singapore’s BBC exchange rate regime with updated data since 1999.We identified a series of parameters including the currency weights that Singapore pegs against,dates of the structural changes of the currency basket,long term appreciation of Singapore dollar against the basket,and the exchange rate flexibility.These results generally match well with the Monetary Policy Statements of Monetary Authority of Singapore.更多还原