【摘要】 改革开放以来,陕西省的国际旅游消费与国民生产总值均获得了快速的发展。文中依据1978-2008年的相关统计数据,采用Eviews6.0软件,运用协整分析和格兰杰因果关系方法检验两者之间的关系,并建立两者间的推拉关系模型。研究结果显示:陕西国际旅游消费与地方经济存在着协整关系,且国际旅游消费是地方经济增长的原因;陕西国际旅游消费水平普遍较低,购物、娱乐和其它费用却增长迅速,这使得消费结构高级化指数不断增高,也意味着国际旅游消费结构日趋合理;以陕西国际旅游消费为自变量,国民生产总值为因变量,建立推拉方程,边际弹性分析显示,国际旅游消费每增长1亿元,推动陕西国民生产总值增加8.9232亿元,国际旅游消费对地方经济拉动的潜力巨大。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since reform and opening,Shaanxi Province gained rapid development in both tourism and economy.Based on relevant statistics data in 1978-2008,using Eviews6.0 software,the authors applied cointegration and Granger causality to test the relationship between tourism and economy,and establish a push and pull model which is about tourism and economic.The results showed that: ①there is cointegration between the development of tourism and the local economy in Shaanxi,that is,a long-term stable relationship exists among inbound tourism,domestic tourism and GDP;② inbound tourism and domestic tourism are the reasons of GDP growth that can promote the development of tourism in Shaanxi,and inbound tourism for promoting economic development in Shaanxi Province is better than that of domestic tourism;③ the gross national product increase is the reason of domestic tourism growth,not the reason for the growth of inbound tourism,local economic development stimulates the domestic tourism obviously.更多还原