【摘要】 以伊犁河上游库克苏河流域冰川为例,利用1963年地形图、2004年的ASTER数字遥感影像资料及数字高程模型,通过遥感图像处理和分析提取研究区冰川范围,并在地理信息系统技术支持下分析该地区冰川的变化情况。研究表明1963-2004年库克苏河流域冰川整体变化幅度较大,冰川表现为萎缩的趋势,2004年冰川面积、冰储量比1963年分别减小了18.9%、21.8%,分析认为,较大的变化率是由于研究区面积<1 km2的冰川数量占总数的比重较大(近80%)造成的。同时分析了库克苏河流域冰川空间结构特征,研究表明0.1~0.5 km2面积的冰川对气候变化最为敏感,消融率最高,1~5 km2面积的冰川对消融总量贡献比例最大。依据分形理论对未来冰川变化进行初步预测,分析认为研究区冰川的消融速率仍将保持比较高的状态。更多还原

【Abstract】 Research on glacier change has been limited in China.Chinese Tianshan Mountains,despite the fact that the number of glaciers in the Tianshan Mountains is the largest among all mountain ranges in China,and the glaciers in this region provide very important water resources for local economic development and drinking water for man use.Most of the research on glaciers in the Tianshan Mountains is in east and west Tianshan Mountains but not in the middle of the Tianshan Mountains.During the past several decades,most glaciers are in a state of rapid retreating due to climate warming.The glaciers of Kukesu River Basin,at the headwaters of the Yili River,were selected as the study area.Based on 1:50 000 topographic maps in 1963,ASTER remote sensing data in 2004 and digital elevation model(DEM),the study area for glaciers was extracted by using the remote sensing image processing and analyzing method,and the changes of glaciers in the study area were analyzed under the support of the geographic information systems technology.The results indicate that the amplitude of the whole change of glaciers in Kukesu River Basin is large and glaciers in this basin have retreated rapidly during the study period from 1963 to 2004.In the study period,the total area and ice volume for the investigated glaciers have reduced by 18.9% and 21.8%,the average area and ice volume for individual glaciers have reduced by 1.2 km2 and 0.08 km3.The paper analyzed the reasons of the large change rate of glaciers,and the results indicate that the large change rate of glaciers is caused by the large proportion of small glaciers,whose glaciers smaller than 1 km2 account for nearly 80% in total glaciers in Kukesu River Basin.Moreover,the results show that the larger the glaciers are,the higher the amplitude of the ablation is,but the reduced rate is lower.Conversely,the opposite may also be true.Furthermore,the reduced rate of area with increasing altitude becomes lower.At the same time,the distribution characteristics of spatial structure for the glaciers were analyzed in the Kukesu River basin,and the results show that those glaciers with area from 0.1 km2 to 0.5 km2 have the highest degree of response to climate change,and nine of eleven disappeared glaciers in Kukesu River Basin are in this area range.Meanwhile,the ablation of glaciers with area from 1 km2 to 5 km2 account for the largest percentage of the total ablation.Finally,based on the fractal theory,the future changes were analyzed,it shows that the melting rate of glaciers in the study area will remain high affected by the climate warming,which is mainly caused by the area and length changes of these glaciers.更多还原