【摘要】 地跨中、俄、哈、蒙四国的阿尔泰山共有冰川面积约1 700 km2,其中中国约280 km2,俄罗斯及哈萨克斯坦约880 km2,可作为统一的冰川系统进行研究。本文首先应用中国及前苏联冰川编目数据分析了本系统冰川的结构特征。表明本区冰川平衡线约为2 983 m,为中国的小型冰川(平均面积0.8 km2)作用区。应用最新的遥感影像与冰川编目数据对比,计算出近40～50 a来,已有208条冰川消失,总面积退缩12%,其中南侧中国为31%,北侧俄、哈两国为7%,这个差别与阿尔泰山南、北两地区近数10 a来气温上升幅度不同有关。应用冰川系统模型计算,阿尔泰山南、北两侧冰川径流在20世纪70～80年代达到最大,然后均逐渐减少,在增温为0.05℃/a的情景下,到本世纪末,阿尔泰山冰川将趋近完全消失,其中中国只剩下3%,俄、哈两国也还只有9%。更多还原

【Abstract】 There are 1 700 km2 glaciers survived in the glacier system of Altay region which locates in the interface of Kazakhstan,Mongolia,Russia and China,with the area of 880 km2 in Russia and Kazakhstan and 280 km2 in China respectively.The characteristics of Altay glacier system were analyzed on the basis of Chinese and Former Soviet Union glacier inventories data.The glacier system’s average area is 0.8 km2 while the median size of Smed(N),Smed(S),Smed(V) are 0.3 km2,2 km2 and 3.4 km2 respectively.The ELA increases both from west to east and from outside mountains to the central mountains with the average elevation of 2 983 m under the effects of precipitation.The maximum area altitude(Hmax(s)) is 3 100 m,and HSR(i.e.the ratio of glacier area near the maximum area altitude(Hmax(S)) against the whole glacier system’s area) is about 0.5 which is the medium level among the glacier systems in China.Two phases of glacier data from the newly remote sensing data(TM/ETM) and the glacier inventories data were obtained.When compared the two phases glacier data,the paper found that 208 glaciers have disappeared and 12% glacial area have vanished;however,there evidently exists different shrinking rates between different directions(the north slope in Russia and Kazakhstan is about 7% and the south slope in China is about 31%),possibly for reason of different climate warming rates,during the last 40-50 years.Furthermore,On the basis of the structure of glacier system and the nature of the equilibrium line altitudes at the steady state(ELA0),functional model of the variation of glacier system are established,using Kotlyakov-Krenkes’s equation relating annual ablation of glacier and mean summer temperature.The models are applied to the study of the response of glacial runoff to climatic change and the effect of both decreasing air temperature due to rising of ELA0 and reduction of glacial area and precipitation rising rate due to climate warming are considered in these models simultaneously.The model results show that,under the climate warming scenario of 0.05 ℃/a,only 3% glaciers in China and 9% in Russia and Kazakhstan will survive at the end of this century.The glacial runoff reaches its climax in 1970-1980s and reduces after,which will undoubtedly impact the ecological systems of Altay Mountains.更多还原