【摘要】 本文在理性预期的框架下,从现值模型出发,得到了房地产价格与收入的关系式。如果房地产价格与收入是非平稳过程,只有当房地产价格与收入呈协整关系时,才没有房地产泡沫,否则将出现房地产泡沫。本文对我国31个省、市和自治区1999-2008年的面板数据进行分析,发现商品房销售价格与城镇居民可支配收入皆为一阶单整过程,并且两者存在协整关系,从而得知,从全国范围来言,我国房地产市场并不存在泡沫;进一步按东、中、西部分析,发现中西部地区房地产市场也不存在泡沫,但东部地区房地产市场存在泡沫。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the framework of rational expectation and using present-value model,this paper obtained the relation between the real-estate prices and income.If real estate prices and incomes are non-stationary processes,only when the real estate prices and incomes are co-integration relationship,there is no real estate bubble,otherwise will appear real-estate bubble.Using the provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions panel data(1999-2008),found both the real-estate prices and disposable income of urban residents in the whole process are first-order integration,and co-integration.Thus,from the nationwide,there is no bubble in Chinese real-estate market.更多还原