【摘要】 本文分析了中国上市银行汇兑损益的影响因素,在比较中国与其他新兴市场国家银行业汇率风险后发现,二者在形成机理和方向上存在显著差异,这种差异首先源于银行资产负债表构成的不同,而储蓄率和对短期流入资本的监管等制度性因素则是造成中国与其他新兴市场国家银行业汇率风险截然不同的深层次原因。本文认为,应继续坚持银行业的对外开放,增强中国银行业的国际竞争力;适时打破人民币升值的单边预期,降低银行汇率风险,加快人民币国际化进程;考虑采取临时性资本管制措施,积极推动外汇衍生品市场的建立;适当降低中国的高储蓄率,改变传统的高投资、粗放型经济增长模式。更多还原

【Abstract】 By exploring the exchange rate risks of banking sectors in both China and other emerging market economies,we find that there exist remarkable differences between them,which originate from different structure of banks’ balance sheets.In further study,we conclude that saving rate and other institutional factors constitute root causes.We argue that opening policy should be continued to enhance the competitiveness of china’s banking sector.The central bank needs to break the expectation of one-way movement at a proper time to lower the foreign exchange risk in the banking sector and speed up the internationalization of RMB.We can consider taking temporary measures on capital control,actively push the establishment of derivatives market,properly lower the saving rate in China and change the mode of high investment and extensive economic growth.更多还原