【摘要】 目的预测三峡库区湖北宜昌段细菌性痢疾发病趋势,为制定针对性的预防控制措施提供依据。方法根据三峡库区湖北宜昌段1997-2010年细菌性痢疾发病率,建立GM(1,1)模型,进行中长期预测研究。结果 预测模型精度检验C=0.2376,P=1.0,外推预测理想。预测结果显示,2011-2013年三峡库区湖北宜昌段细菌性痢疾年发病率分别为0.985/10万,0.688/10万,0.336/10万。结论 预测表明2011-2013年三峡库区宜昌段细菌性痢疾年发病率呈下降趋势。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To predict the incidence trend of bacillary dysentery in the Three Gorges Reservoir(Yichang section),and make pertinent measures for prevention. Methods The grey dynamic model was established with the incidence rates of bacillary dysentery in Yichang from 1997 to 2010.The model was used to predict the trend of dysentery for the year 2011 to 2014. Results The model predicted that the incidence rate of bacillary dysentery might be 0.985,0.688,0.481 per 100000 person-year respectively for the year 2011 to 2013. Conclusion The model suggested the downward trend of the disease incidence.Comprehensive measures should still be taken to control the risk of dysentery disease transmission in the Three Gorges Reservoir.更多还原